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Calling tonight’s gathering of Republican presidential hopefuls at the Reagan Library a debate is a bit of a stretch. Yesterday I referred to it as a CPC (Competitive Press Conference) because with so many candidates and so little time available for each to talk, it will be little more than a battle for soundbytes. Ironically with that as the backdrop, tonight will be extremely important for Republicans.

Hunh?

The reason that tonight is important for the GOP is that even with ten potential options for the nomination on the stage, over 50% of the Republican base wants somebody else to run (see the CBS POLL results from 4/13). Compare this to an overwhelming level of satisfaction by Democrats with their pool of candidates and you can see the two major parties headed in opposite directions.

On the stage tonight will be ten current and formerly elected officials, some with brilliant resumes but none with the “conservative credentials” that remind the base of Ronald Reagan. Waiting in the wings you have the man who created the Contract with America (a conservative opus that smashed the likes of Democratic superstar Mr. Hillary Clinton) - Newt Gingrich, and the “southern fried Reagan” (need we say more) - Fred Thompson. With these two mulling their futures, the Republican primary voter is playing wait and see - not just about their choice of candidates, but about the Republican party as a whole.

Then there’s the issue of President Bush.

Democrats may have some differences among their candidates, but their unspoken mantra is the same - George Bush sucks - and it resonates well with the American electorate at large and even better with the Democratic party faithful.

On the other hand, each Republican candidate swears his undying support for the president, but only because one is expected to stand with the leader of the party. The Republican base’s support for Bush has remained fairly solid, but it has shown signs of a trending erosion that will continue to evolve as the War in Iraq slogs on and the president’s second term lame duck legacy grows. Of the leaders (Giuliani, McCain and Romney) in the GOP field, McCain seems to get this better than the rest - and he’s the one who has most strongly embraced the president and the current surge in Iraq. He more than any other has criticized the administration’s execution of the war and is working to find a way to publicly distance himself from the White House without demonizing his own support for Bush policy. Whether McCain can do this remains to be seen, but sooner or later any Republican candidate who intends to win in November 2008 will have to find a way to do this, and do it in a way that will not offend the GOP primary voter - not exactly an easy task

Finally there’s a crisis of conscience within the Republican party.

The Democrats solidified by the hatred for Bush have only one goal in 2008 - winning the White House and they know that the path to victory goes through Iraq. This approach was seen last week during their CPC when all of the Left’s other “substantive” issues (global warming, universal healthcare and the economy) took a significant backseat to Iraq. As long as the Democrats keep their collective support for a withdrawal from Iraq on the frontburner they will appear unified.

On the Republican side, the question of what to do in Iraq is front and center, but the party faithful has not allowed it to get in the way of the special interest wrangling that once plagued the Democrats. The GOP has Christofacists, Fiscal Conservatives, NeoConservatives, Gun-toting libertarians, Social moderates and many more to placate. Each group rallies around the cause they see as important instead of working to develop an electoral majority with which to win elections. Our party that once cared more about winning through its big tent majority is now actively ravaging that tent in favor of their competing interests. The GOP needs a candidate who can find a way to herd the special interests into a cohesive union and speak with a singular voice.

Solving all of these problems within the GOP is probably too big an order for one 90 minute CPC, but tonight’s program in California is a very important first step that could help move the party forward. Here’s hoping that all of the candidates do well.