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Last night Al Gore took his next step toward a candidacy for president in 2008 - he won an Oscar. In winning the award for best documentary film - “An Inconvenient Truth”, Gore was gracious in his remarks, humorous in his conduct and above all, he was not Hillary or Obama. In a time when candidates and their campaigns are arming themselves with positions on issues and fundraisers, Gore is taking his victory lap. While those officially (or unofficially) seek the Democrats nomination, the former Vice President is doing something more important - he is winning the public relations war.

It’s not too hard to extrapolate what’s next in this naturally scripted (but unintentionally so) plot sequence. Gore will continue to deny his interest in running, but he will not reject it out of hand. The other candidates will continue to fall all over each other, scrambling to quarantine donors in hardened silos of support. They’ll snipe among themselves, demonstrating that once again the Democratic party can’t help but put politics ahead of winning. By the end of a scorched-earth Summer, the Democratic field of candidates will be bloodied and decimated to the point that they will actually make the Republican frontrunners look attractive to the public.

The Republicans who have always been more interested in winning elections than in political ideologies will have shortened their list of candidates to two. The pundits will be wondering aloud “Where did the Democrats go wrong?” and “Can the Republicans actually keep the White House?” At the same time the Democratic field because of the huge number of factions - African Americans with Obama, professional women and suburbanites with Hillary, organized labor and the poor with Edwards, security moms and stodgy old-timers with Biden, big business with Dodd, and I would be reticent if I didn’t mention crazy people with conman Kucinich: will be loaded with candidates who rationalize that they still have a chance at the brass ring. Money and patience will be spread thin and each candidate will be looking at the others to see who will blink first.

The summer will turn to fall and the candidates will begin the process of publicly twisting arms and counting heads in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. None of them will garner a majority and the bickering will become worse - not only will they attack each other personally, they’ll begin to second guess some of the Democratic party’s Holy Grails - like abortion rights and opposition to the war in Iraq. Candidates looking to turn the tide and gain some polling points will take stabs at Democratic doctrine hoping to seperate from the field. Yet they will continue to lose traction as the public’s election fatigue grows. And then in mid-October…

Al Gore wins the Nobel Prize.

Although the prize ceremony is not until December the recipients are typically announced in the fall and at the press

conference to acknowledge the award, a slimmer Al Gore shows up to thank the committee and (”because of the overwhelming pressure from friends and family”) announce that he is launching an exploratory committee for president. He’s joined at the press conference by New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson who announces that he is dropping out of the race to support Gore with whom he served as a member of the Clinton administration.

Gore (who has polished his personality since the 2000 campaign) presents himself as an unassuming, relaxed and authentically serious option for the Democratic electorate. Richardson’s well-maintained behind the scenes connections within the party allows the maybe candidate to quietly gain the support of party leaders and by the time Thanksgiving rolls around, Gore makes his official announcement speech at the family farm in Tennessee. He announces that his campaign will begin with a war chest of $100 million in pledged support (much of which comes from folks who have already shown fealty to other candidates - but that was before the Gore factor). The Gore constituency is made up of old-line Democrats, the exploding hispanic/latino demographic (thanks to Richardson), the hollywood elite, tree-hugging crazies (sorry conman, maybe next time), and ironically many Republicans who have had it with their party.

The rest of the story is a driving domino cascade of Gore taking a surprising second place in Iowa (thanks to a last minute joint Harkin/Vilsack endorsement he is able to develop an immediate network of support), a dissapointing fourth in Nevada (Edwards, Hillary and oh my God the conman beat him thanks to their union ties), and a stunning majority victory in New Hampshire (where he will spend the majority of his time and money leading up to the primaries). From there the writing is on the wall.

Money is drying up for the other candidates and the Gore machine is just getting started. Obama’s the first of the big hitters to drop out and although he doesn’t endorse Gore, the bad blood between he and Hillary will be so poisonous that his campaign’s supporters jump on the Gore bandwagon. The battle rages on in South Carolina and Florida where Gore wins handily over a distant Hillary and a very disappointed third placed Edwards (who was banking on South Carolina to carry him through). Edwards is out and the first Super Tuesday solidifies Gore’s position as he wins every state (including California where Hillary has bet the farm - or at least the house in New York). The Democratic primaries are all but over (everyone has dropped out except for the conman) and Gore is the Democratic nominee.

The story ends with Gore winning handily in November (with both the popular and Electoral College majorities) and becoming the next president. Whew…

could happen.